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From the desk of Dr. Kevin, MD
“If someone blackout on a water slide, it’s not bad karma… it’s called vasovagal syncope…”
The Great Vegetable Oil Conspiracy
(And Other Graph Crimes)
Hi my beautiful Scalpelhealds, I’m pissed as f*ck again… yes, I swear sometimes.
Apparently, all we needed to solve obesity was a blurry photo from 1974 and two lines on a graph.
The other day. Opened TikTok. Saw this dude saying:
“Look at the 70s. Nobody was obese. Calorie intake hasn’t changed. Sugar hasn’t changed. But vegetable oils went up… and so did obesity. Coincidence? I THINK NOT.”
Yes. Think not. Please.
Because if we’re going to play that game, we also have to ban sunglasses. Sunglasses sales have skyrocketed since the 60s. So has obesity. Big Ray-Ban is suspiciously quiet.
Correlation ≠ Causation
(Or: How to NOT Blame Tomatoes for Divorce)
The classic example: cheese consumption correlates with people dying from getting tangled in bedsheets. That doesn’t mean Brie is out here committing homicide.
Two lines moving together on a graph doesn’t prove one causes the other. It just proves they both exist over time.
Now let me put my sexy glasses on…
Ok, let’s look at actual data…
1. People Are Eating More
The claim that calories “haven’t changed” is simply not supported by large national datasets.
Analysis of four cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1971–2000 showed that:
Men increased average daily intake by about 168–300 kcal/day
Women increased by about 335 kcal/day
Increases were seen across almost all age groups
(These citations are for Nerds: Briefel & Johnson, J Nutr. 2004; Wright et al., Am J Clin Nutr. 2004)
Three hundred extra calories per day is not trivial. That’s roughly the energy equivalent of an extra small meal. Every. Single. Day.
And it gets better.
Underreporting Is Massive
Multiple studies show people underreport calorie intake by 20–30% on average, and underreporting is even higher in individuals with obesity
(Lichtman et al., N Engl J Med. 1992; Heitmann & Lissner, BMJ. 1995)
In the famous NEJM study, participants claiming to eat “normal” calories were actually consuming far more when measured objectively. 😑
So when someone says, “Calories haven’t changed,” what they often mean is:
“Self-reported calories haven’t changed much… in surveys where humans lie about food.”
Shocking.
2. Portion Sizes Exploded
Research shows that portion sizes for common foods (burgers, fries, soda) increased dramatically from the 1970s to the 1990s
(Nielsen & Popkin, JAMA. 2003)
You didn’t just get older. Your soda did too.
Larger portions → higher passive intake → more calories without conscious awareness.
3. Ultra-Processed Foods Drive Overeating
In a tightly controlled randomized trial, participants eating ultra-processed diets consumed about 500 extra calories per day compared to when they ate minimally processed diets (despite meals being matched for macros)
(Hall et al., Cell Metabolism. 2019)
Five. Hundred. Extra. Calories. Without being told to overeat.
Ultra-processed foods are engineered to be hyper-palatable, easy to overconsume, and less satiating. That’s not a vegetable oil conspiracy. That’s food environment science.
4. Vegetable Oils Themselves?
Most mainstream dietary guidelines (e.g., American Heart Association) actually recommend replacing saturated fats with polyunsaturated fats, including vegetable oils, because they reduce LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular risk
(Sacks et al., Circulation. 2017; Hooper et al., Cochrane Review 2020)
Are vegetable oils calorie-dense? Yes.
Do they magically override thermodynamics and cause fat gain without excess calories? F*ck No.
Fat gain requires sustained positive energy balance. That’s basic physiology, not a plot twist.
But emmm Kevin, what Actually Changed Since the 70s?
Bigger portions
More ultra-processed food
More liquid calories
More snacking
Less physical activity
More sedentary jobs
Higher overall caloric intake (even if underreported)
Obesity is multifactorial. It’s boring. It’s complex. It doesn’t fit in a TikTok graph with dramatic music.
But it does fit decades of metabolic research.
If someone shows you two lines on a graph and whispers “vegetable oils did this,” just remember:
If correlation proved causation, Nicholas Cage movies would be responsible for swimming pool drownings.
Science deserves better than vibes and screenshots.
Now I feel much better talking to you… But don’t forget to reply back with the word "purple” so I can see if you read the whole thing…
Anyways, until next Saturday,
Dr. Kevin Cutthebull, MD
P.S. As usual, you can download my favorite guide of the week here. For free (no opt-in required)→ (Download Here)
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